Posted by
rycK on Friday, October 30, 2009 12:29:43 PM
Imaginary Numbers in the Starry
Skies and the Quest for a Crystal Ball: Our Government Announces Job Creation
Success with their Stimulus Program!
Abstract: We have had a 787 billon dollar ‘stimulus’ package in Jan 2009
that had certain goals, one of which, was to reduce unemployment, and the
outcome of this effort is now questionable.
The original ‘promise’ was that the unemployment would be 7% by the 4th quarter of 2010 and that without this
stimulus it would be 8.8%. In July of this year
Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers Chairperson Christina Romer then told us
“…None of us had a crystal ball..” and from Joe Biden: “ … The truth is we and everyone else misread the economy…” Then Romer told us on
October 22 that “…fiscal stimulus will likely be contributing little to
growth.” A small spike in the GDP, probably stemming
from some phony clunker and house stimuli, now prompts the Obama Administration to claim that they were
responsible for 650,000 jobs. It is clear that these parasites in Washington have no crystal balls or other forms of cojones and act like
drug-whacked losers. They only thing they can do are waffle, abuse the economy
and claim the glory for anything that even resembles a positive effect on the
economy. The unemployment will hit 10% soon so what will they do? Another
stimulus? These communist freak-show buffoons now want to spend another 1
trillion dollars on healthcare? Where is the crystal ball that predicts that
outcome? We are being bankrupted by idiots in Washington.
One of the most challenging tasks that confront the
citizens of various countries is to force them selves to believe what their
governments tell them about any and all matters. Firing squads and gulags have frequently
been tenderly employed to facilitate the citizens in their beliefs. We are
exposed to ‘promises,’ mostly made just before elections, to sooth and cajole
the people to believe and endorse and select their candidates based on these
promises. This is all accomplished with song and dance and glittery banners and
kazoo honkings in various keys. How many of these promises are kept? Since the
economy was the primary concern last election, we were offered a stimulus
program with a cost of 787 billion dollars and now we hear that this will not
have much effect on growth? What happened to the priming of the pump clichés so
popular in past decades?
We were promised that our economy would be fixed and that
it would improve and that unemployment, among other metrics, would be held
below 8%. Now, onto the facts:
We can conveniently monitor the promises by collating sound bites and announcements on government
websites and from the comments and testimonies from government bureaucrats on
television and radio and make lists. There is no way for a promise to escape
attention under such documentation standards, but the fulfillment of such
promises and the conditions imposed upon such promises corrupt the process and
spreads fog and hokum over the results in many cases. Although the promises are
sullied by caveats and the existence of new
information that was not incorporated into the original forecasts we learn. Thus, mumbling is still the best way to
proffer false promises and guesses to the voters and we investigate that today
as the government celebrates the creation or saving of 650,000 jobs.
Ancient History and
the Promises: Here is the stimulus act of Jan 2009
“An
Act: Making supplemental appropriations for job preservation and creation,
infrastructure investment, energy efficiency and science, assistance to the
unemployed, and State and local fiscal stabilization, for the fiscal year
ending September
30, 2009, and for other purposes.” [Emphasis is mine in
all quotes.]
This act, costing 787 billion dollars, was supposed to do
what? Be for job preservation and
creation?
Now, we hear that somebody
promised to keep unemployment at 8 % or so and the rate has increased to nearly
10%. Who said this?
Here is what
Christine Romer published:
“First, the likely
scale of employment loss is extremely large. The U.S. economy has already lost
nearly 2.6 million
jobs since the business cycle peak in December 2007. In the absence of
stimulus, the economy could lose another 3 to 4 million more. Thus, we are
working to counter a potential total job loss of at least 5 million. As Figure
1 shows, even with the large prototypical package, the unemployment rate in 2010Q4 is predicted to
be approximately 7.0%, which is well below the approximately 8.8% that would result
in the absence of a plan.”
Okay, so we
‘projected’ some numbers with a mere trillion or so of our borrowed tax dollars
but the caveats spill over the table as we read this:
“Here's what Romer herself said in a July 2 interview on
Fox: "None of us had a crystal ball
back in December and January. I think almost every private forecaster realized
that there were other things going on in the economy. It was worse
than we anticipated. What the private
forecasters are saying now is that they do anticipate that the economy will
start growing again in the second half of the year, and that usually, then,
employment and unemployment start to respond shortly after that. So I think
that is a realistic expectation."
Biden also acknowledged the
discrepancies in a July 5 interview with ABC's George Stephanopoulos.
"The truth is, we and everyone
else misread the economy," Biden said. "The figures we
worked off of in January were the consensus figures in most of the blue chip
indexes out there. ... And so the truth is, there was a misreading of just how
bad an economy we inherited. Now, that doesn't — I'm not laying — it's now our
responsibility. So the second question becomes, did the economic
package we put in place, including the Recovery Act, is it the right package
given the circumstances we're in? And we believe it is the right package given the
circumstances we're in."
Then Romer sandbags
the Biden follies:
“Most
analysts predict that the fiscal stimulus will have its greatest impact on
growth in the second and third quarters of 2009,” Romer said. “By mid-2010, fiscal stimulus will likely be contributing little to
growth.”— Christine
Romer Oct. 22
Today,
we read:
“WASHINGTON — About 650,000 jobs
have been saved or created under President Barack Obama's economic stimulus
plan, the White House said Friday, saying it is on track to reach the
president's goal of 3.5 million jobs by the end of next year”-- Gov't says stimulus saved or created 650,000 jobs By Matt Apuzzo
And Brett J. Blackledge – 18 minutes ago
So, they guessed and misguessed and spent some money and admitted it was not based on realty but
now were on the right track and frantically search for a crystal ball and then admitted it won’t work and then they claimed victory for a small bump in GDP. That makes sense to some liberal we presume.
The sad facts here
are that our government spends with no notion of how much this will change the
economy and are impenitent when pressed for positive results. Their phony
predictions are cloaked with caveats and more promises as excuses when they are
show to be false. The politicians in charge are like tumors on a dog’s behind:
they just cause perpetual and escalating physical and emotional agony and will
eventually kill the host. The best guess was
that unemployment might hit 8.8% in the absence of this massive spending
program and now it is nearly 10%. Shall we guess again and spend another
trillion dollars?
We have to let
these people know at what level of regard we hold them. They are both incompetent and crooked. Stay tuned for more
unemployment, debasement of our currency and much more.
rycK [a 5th generation
Californian in exile]
Comments
to: ryckki@gmail.com
Cantor and other Republicans say
Obama promised stimulus would keep unemployment rates below 8 percent “Biden also acknowledged the discrepancies in a July 5
interview with ABC's George Stephanopoulos.
"The
truth is, we and everyone else misread the economy," Biden said. "The
figures we worked off of in January were the consensus figures in most of the
blue chip indexes out there. ... And so the truth is, there was a misreading of
just how bad an economy we inherited. Now, that doesn't — I'm not laying — it's
now our responsibility. So the second question becomes, did the economic
package we put in place, including the Recovery Act, is it the right package
given the circumstances we're in? And we believe it is the right package given
the circumstances we're in."
Biden also
acknowledged the discrepancies in a July 5 interview with ABC's George
Stephanopoulos.
"The truth is, we and everyone else misread the
economy," Biden said. "The figures we worked off of in January were
the consensus figures in most of the blue chip indexes out there. ... And so
the truth is, there was a misreading of just how bad an economy we inherited.
Now, that doesn't — I'm not laying — it's now our responsibility. So the second
question becomes, did the economic package we put in place, including the
Recovery Act, is it the right package given the circumstances we're in? And we
believe it is the right package given the circumstances we're in."
“ http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2009/jul/09/eric-cantor/Cantor-and-other-republicans-say-obama-promised-s/