Imaginary Numbers in the Starry Skies and the Quest for a Crystal Ball: Our Government Announces Job Creation Success with their Stimulus Program!

Abstract: We have had a 787 billon dollar ‘stimulus’ package in Jan 2009 that had certain goals, one of which, was to reduce unemployment, and the outcome of this effort is  now questionable. The original ‘promise’ was that the unemployment would be 7% by the 4^th quarter of 2010 and that without this stimulus it would be 8.8%. In July of this year Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers Chairperson Christina Romer then told us “…None of us had a crystal ball..” and from Joe Biden: “ … The truth is we and everyone else misread the economy…”  Then Romer told us on October 22 that “…fiscal stimulus will likely be contributing little to growth.” A small spike in the GDP, probably stemming from some phony clunker[1] and house stimuli[2], now prompts the Obama Administration to claim that they were responsible for 650,000 jobs. It is clear that these parasites in Washington have no crystal balls or other forms of cojones and act like drug-whacked losers. They only thing they can do are waffle, abuse the economy and claim the glory for anything that even resembles a positive effect on the economy. The unemployment will hit 10% soon so what will they do? Another stimulus? These communist freak-show buffoons now want to spend another 1 trillion dollars on healthcare? Where is the crystal ball that predicts that outcome? We are being bankrupted by idiots in Washington.

One of the most challenging tasks that confront the citizens of various countries is to force them selves to believe what their governments tell them about any and all matters. Firing squads and gulags have frequently been tenderly employed to facilitate the citizens in their beliefs. We are exposed to ‘promises,’ mostly made just before elections, to sooth and cajole the people to believe and endorse and select their candidates based on these promises. This is all accomplished with song and dance and glittery banners and kazoo honkings in various keys. How many of these promises are kept? Since the economy was the primary concern last election, we were offered a stimulus program with a cost of 787 billion dollars and now we hear that this will not have much effect on growth? What happened to the priming of the pump clichés so popular in past decades?

We were promised that our economy would be fixed and that it would improve and that unemployment, among other metrics, would be held below 8%.  Now, onto the facts:

We can conveniently monitor the promises by collating sound bites and announcements on government websites and from the comments and testimonies from government bureaucrats on television and radio and make lists. There is no way for a promise to escape attention under such documentation standards, but the fulfillment of such promises and the conditions imposed upon such promises corrupt the process and spreads fog and hokum over the results in many cases. Although the promises are sullied by caveats and the existence of new information that was not incorporated into the original forecasts we learn.  Thus, mumbling is still the best way to proffer false promises and guesses to the voters and we investigate that today as the government celebrates the creation or saving of 650,000 jobs.

Ancient History and the Promises: Here is the stimulus act of Jan 2009

“An Act: Making supplemental appropriations for job preservation and creation, infrastructure investment, energy efficiency and science, assistance to the unemployed, and State and local fiscal stabilization, for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2009, and for other purposes.”[3] [Emphasis is mine in all quotes.]

This act, costing 787 billion dollars, was supposed to do what? Be for job preservation and creation?

Now, we hear that somebody promised to keep unemployment at 8 % or so and the rate has increased to nearly 10%. Who said this?

Here is what Christine Romer published:

“First, the likely scale of employment loss is extremely large. The U.S. economy has already lost

nearly 2.6 million jobs since the business cycle peak in December 2007. In the absence of stimulus, the economy could lose another 3 to 4 million more. Thus, we are working to counter a potential total job loss of at least 5 million. As Figure 1 shows, even with the large prototypical package, the unemployment rate in 2010Q4 is predicted to be approximately 7.0%, which is well below the approximately 8.8% that would result in the absence of a plan.”

Okay, so we ‘projected’ some numbers with a mere trillion or so of our borrowed tax dollars but the caveats spill over the table as we read this:

“Here's what Romer herself said in a July 2 interview on Fox: "None of us had a crystal ball back in December and January. I think almost every private forecaster realized that there were other things going on in the economy. It was worse than we anticipated. What the private forecasters are saying now is that they do anticipate that the economy will start growing again in the second half of the year, and that usually, then, employment and unemployment start to respond shortly after that. So I think that is a realistic expectation." [4]

Biden[5] also acknowledged the discrepancies in a July 5 interview with ABC's George Stephanopoulos.

"The truth is, we and everyone else misread the economy," Biden said. "The figures we worked off of in January were the consensus figures in most of the blue chip indexes out there. ... And so the truth is, there was a misreading of just how bad an economy we inherited. Now, that doesn't — I'm not laying — it's now our responsibility. So the second question becomes, did the economic package we put in place, including the Recovery Act, is it the right package given the circumstances we're in? And we believe it is the right package given the circumstances we're in."

Then Romer sandbags the Biden follies:

“Most analysts predict that the fiscal stimulus will have its greatest impact on growth in the second and third quarters of 2009,” Romer said. “By mid-2010, fiscal stimulus will likely be contributing little to growth.”[6]— Christine Romer Oct. 22

Today, we read:

“WASHINGTON — About 650,000 jobs have been saved or created under President Barack Obama's economic stimulus plan, the White House said Friday, saying it is on track to reach the president's goal of 3.5 million jobs by the end of next year”[7]-- Gov't says stimulus saved or created 650,000 jobs By Matt Apuzzo And Brett J. Blackledge – 18 minutes ago

So, they guessed and misguessed and spent some money and admitted it was not based on realty but now were on the right track and frantically search for a crystal ball and then admitted it won’t work and then they claimed victory for a small bump in GDP. That makes sense to some liberal we presume.

The sad facts here are that our government spends with no notion of how much this will change the economy and are impenitent when pressed for positive results. Their phony predictions are cloaked with caveats and more promises as excuses when they are show to be false. The politicians in charge are like tumors on a dog’s behind: they just cause perpetual and escalating physical and emotional agony and will eventually kill the host. The best guess was that unemployment might hit 8.8% in the absence of this massive spending program and now it is nearly 10%. Shall we guess again and spend another trillion dollars?

We have to let these people know at what level of regard we hold them.  They are both incompetent[8] and crooked. Stay tuned for more unemployment, debasement of our currency[9][10] and much more.[11]

rycK [a 5^th generation Californian in exile]

Comments to: ryckki@gmail.com