Posted by
rycK on Thursday, August 20, 2009 10:51:49 AM
Gangrening the
Greenback as Explained by Warren Buffett. Liberalism Has New Excuses for
Spending and Printing Money.
Abstract: Warren Buffet writes
what appears, a least in the preamble, to be a silly fluff piece. The article
wanders about with an inclusive analysis of debt, deflation, inflation and
spending but is rather blunt about impending inflation. This theme is out of
line with Krugman’s assessment of inflation that routinely bores us in the NYT. Apparently out of
place in this ragzine, there are some hints proffered by Buffett for incumbent
leftist politicians as to their survival when inflation does break forth and
sink the economy. There appear to be defense instructions hidden in the fluff
and pedantry of this piece replete with justifications and handy excuses to
push off the wrath of the voters into other avenues and allow reelection of
loyal leftist in hard times. This disguised political survivor piece is similar
to the counsel offered in The Prince by Niccolò
Machiavelli.
The quest
for the wealth of capitalists is an ongoing crusade in leftist circles and is
boldly aided and abetted by the New York Times [aka the Walter Duranty Papers].
Speaking bluntly, a form of expression that can only break through the neuronal
scabs and psychological bastions of the average leftist persona, we can safely
state that the only thing they can have on this planet is what they can steal
from capitalists, the ignoranti or other worthy and successful people. The NYT is thus their Medusa who manifold
snakes guide the followers through the sticky labyrinth of political influence
and inculcate them with the proper use of propaganda. This rusty crank is
tautologically turned daily. Today we read something new and, as a bonus, it is refreshingly free of reverse racism and
Nazi scare tactics for a change.
We must habitually
trundle through everyday examples of tautological fluff and assorted ancillary hokum
in pieces by the Times where the very few principles of the left are touted in
nearly every paragraph. Today, however, we are treated to a novel and
unbelievable treatise on butterfly effects from Warren E. Buffett that skirts
around the usual leftist pulp disguised as economics and finance that we read
from Paul
Krugmanand this welcome variation in style and fact presents us with a rather
stark but focused view of what is really happening in our economy. There is no apparent reason for this article to
be even mentioned in the NYT given its disparity from the rote krugmaniacal rut that locks the Times
into stale Keynesian economic revisionism, unless we probe deeper into the
article. Here we seem to find a loophole for liberal legislators to jump
through to escape the several approaching economic disasters that debt had
granted us such as: high unemployment, spending deficits, inflation and debt.
Let us comb through this piece and attempt to ascertain why this was published in this setting and what kind of signal it sends to the rabid left.
Buffet begins badly:
“In nature, every action has consequences, a
phenomenon called the butterfly effect. These consequences, moreover, are not
necessarily proportional. For example, doubling the carbon dioxide we belch
into the atmosphere may far more than double the subsequent problems for
society. Realizing this, the world properly worries about greenhouse emissions.
The butterfly effect reaches into the
financial world as well. Here, the United States is spewing a potentially damaging substance into our
economy — greenback emissions.”--The
Greenback Effect By Warren E. Buffett Op-Ed Contributor Published: August
18, 2009 [Emphasis is mine in
all quotes.]
What an analogy! Many actions have
no consequences. This paragraph was
seemingly written by a butterfly as it
flitters from one point to another with cavalier cerebral abandon. The shifting
of the sands, probably on the order of a trillion gazillion events or more per
grain with respect to other local grains, on the North beach in Samoa from 654B.C.E. to 974 AD has no
effect on either Rome or Carthage for example. The phrase for this
nonsense is known as the fallacy: post
hoc ergo propter hoc
and means that some apparent “correlation
between two variables does not automatically imply that one causes the other.”
Buffet has no notions whether butterflies, carbon
dioxide or sun spots might cause future greenhouse effects and has even less of
an idea whether the effect is arithmetic, geometric or some other mathematical nonlinearity. But, the use of this mélange of unrelated
nostrums that are glued together in this introduction to inflation theory in
such a place as the New York Times is vague and unusual thus giving us the
false notion that Buffet must be profound since we cannot grasp what he is
talking about. He is not profound. He mumbles, but he mumbles for some reason.
This foreplay may be a sop to the editors of the Times as
their attention span is short and narrow in scope or he may have something
important to say about elections. I think he has a message for the liberals in
office.
False status and
fears:
“The United States economy is now out of
the emergency room and appears to be on a slow path to recovery. But enormous
dosages of monetary medicine continue to be administered and, before long, we
will need to deal with their side effects. For now, most of those effects are
invisible and could indeed remain latent for a long time. Still, their threat
may be as ominous as that posed by the financial crisis itself.”--
Greenback Effect By Warren E. Buffett
A circular essay. There is no
reason to suspect that we are free from the grip of a downward debt-driven
deflationary spiral at this time. Most
of Europe is deflating and the deflationary aspects of our financial system are
currently masked by the wild printing of money, sluggish money velocity
of lending at banks and posting trillions of dollars to tier 1 capital accounts
of zombie banks
that are stone, cold dead. This fresh unanchored money offers the illusion that
some of our banks are in point of fact solvent. Now, the bogeyman lurks in the
dark swamps out of sight of normal mortals and may soon rise and search for
food. This monster is inflation and her daughter is hyperinflation. This was
obvious decades ago, but Buffy appears to be the Sage as he presents us with
‘new’ information and wise counsel.
Shifting to things that he can find in history books and after little
paring of the fluff we get:
“… If we leave aside the war-impacted years of 1942 to 1946,
the largest annual deficit the United States has incurred since 1920 was 6 percent of gross domestic product.
This fiscal year.… deficit will rise to about 13 percent of G.D.P., more than twice the non-wartime record. In dollars, that
equates to a staggering $1.8 trillion. Fiscally, we are in uncharted territory.” Greenback Effect By Warren E.
Buffett
The “we” here has no bearings on any reality landmass as many have
been down the Road to Serfdom when money is printed willy-nilly and inflation
or hyperinflation roars. That phenomenon has been well studied and Warren is chasing his own butterfly now.
Finally some solid
thinking:
“An increase in federal debt
can be financed in three ways: [1] borrowing from foreigners, [2]
borrowing from our own citizens or, through a roundabout process, [3]
printing money. Let’s look at the prospects for each individually — and in combination.”
[Emphasis is mine in all quotes.]
Comments on [1]
“The current account deficit
— dollars that we force-feed to the rest of the world and that must then be
invested — will be $400 billion or so this year. Assume, in a relatively benign
scenario, that all of this is directed by the recipients — China leads the list — to
purchases of United States debt. “--Greenback Effect By Warren E. Buffett
This is the external debt—not the national or “public” debt. “Public debt is the amount owed by the government to its
creditors, whether they are nationals or foreigners.”
That
amount is now nearly 12 trillion dollars or about $38,834.95 on average per person
out of 309 million total populations or for the approximately 60 million
persons who actually pay federal taxes a sum of right at $200,000 each.
The
interest on this debt in 2008 was $451,154,049,950.63. The
debt has increased every year since 1969. The yearly taxpayer’s interest load alone
is now $7,519.23 for each
of the 60 million who actually pay federal taxes. The government is apparently
just printing money to pay off this interest as it comes due. Gee, doesn’t that
just lead to more debt??
Note
that this does not include Social
Security which is in a separate account and taxed differently. That is another
wreckage of leftist government to be dealt with soon.
Note
that Buffett fails to mention massive debt like the rubble of some 5 trillion
dollars in phony mortgage debt that rots in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. This is
what kind of debt? Not on the books yet?? The Fannie Mae ‘toxic debt’ alone
adds another 5 x $16,000 to the taxpayer’s burden since this $16,000
is one trillion dollars divided by 60 million from above. That is $80,000
more. [Gee, this builds up fast!] Notice
that Buffett apparently thinks that Fed Balance Sheet transfers are not debt in
any way and he is technically correct. This is partially true if that money can
be clawed back [read unwound by Tim Geithner] before
it enters the fractional reserve banking system and gets into circulation.
An article by CNBC thinks
our Fed put out 7.36
trillion dollars around Nov. 13, 2008 and
scattered it around the world:
Here are some financial
hocus-pocus items featuring some technical language. Some of this money appears
to be in terms of guarantees, whatever that means.
|
Government Entity
|
Amount Allocated in Millions of
Dollars
|
Spent/Lent In Billions of Dollars
|
|
Federal Reserve:
|
|
|
|
(TAF) Term Auction Credit
(allocated)
|
900
|
415.3
|
|
Discount Window Lending
|
|
139.3
|
|
Banks (other loans primary credit)
|
|
92.6
|
|
Investment Banks (other loans
Primary dealer and other broker-dealer credit)
|
|
46.6
|
|
Loans to buy ABCP (other loans
Asset-backed commercial paper money market mutual fund liquidity facility)
|
|
661.9
|
|
AIG (allocated minus Treasury 40B)
|
112.5
|
87.4
|
|
Bear Stearns (initial loan to
JPMorgan)
|
29.5
|
26
|
|
(TSLF) Term Securities Lending
Facility
|
22
|
200
|
|
Swap Lines (other federal
reserve assets)
|
|
601
|
|
(MMIFF) Money Market Investor
Funding Facility (allocated)
|
540
|
|
|
(CPFF) Commercial Paper Funding
Facility *upper limit from Reuters
|
1800
|
270
|
|
(TALF) Term Asset-Backed
Securities Loan Facility
|
200
|
200
|
|
GSE MBS NO NAME Program
|
600
|
600
|
|
Treasury:
|
|
|
|
(TARP) Treasury Asset Relief
Program
|
700
|
330
|
|
Exchange Stabilization Fund to
guarantee principal in money market mutual funds
|
50
|
|
|
Treasury direct purchases of MBS
since Sept.
|
26
|
|
|
Citigroup (Treasury+FDIC
guarantees)
|
238
|
|
|
FDIC:
|
|
|
|
Guarantees for Banks
|
1900
|
|
|
Other:
|
|
|
|
Automakers
|
25
|
|
|
(FHA) Federal Housing
Administration
|
300
|
|
|
Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac
|
350.
|
|
|
TOTAL
|
7361 billions
|
7.36 trillion dollars
|
Gee,
does this effort, whatever it might be swamp TARP? What is all this stuff?
Such
funds, if they enter the banking system multiply by 10 in a short time!! Our M2 money
supply then could soar from 8.3 trillion to 18.3 trillion if only one of those
trillion dollar deals leaks out.
Comments on [2]
“Then take the second element of the scenario
— borrowing from our own citizens. Assume that Americans save $500 billion, far
above what they’ve saved recently but perhaps consistent with the changing
national mood. Finally, assume that these citizens opt to put all their savings
into United States Treasuries (partly through
intermediaries like banks).
Comments on [3]
“Even with these heroic assumptions, the
Treasury will be obliged to find another $900 billion to finance the remainder
of the $1.8 trillion of debt it is issuing. Washington’s printing presses will need to work overtime.”-- Greenback Effect By Warren E.
Buffett
This
is now trendily known as quantitative easing. This is a disaster.
Buffett tosses new fluff and
watches the butterflies flitter around the room as if we had not heard
this from him already back in early May:
“Every country that has denominated its debt in its own currency and has
found itself with uncomfortable amounts of debt relative to the rest of the
world, in the end they inflate,” Buffett explains. That becomes a tax on everybody that has fixed dollar investments.”--Buffett Sees Massive Inflation
to Handle Staggering Debt. Monday,
May 4, 2009
By Dan Weil [Emphasis is mine in all quotes]
Now the hammer:
“With government expenditures now running 185 percent of
receipts, truly major changes in both taxes and outlays
will be required. A revived economy can’t come close to bridging that sort of
gap.”-- Greenback Effect By Warren E. Buffett
The word outlays here seem to be inserted into the
usual spot where the word spending is used. Is this Newspeak or Doublespeak? I
thought Clinton said these were ‘investments?’
The outcome of such spending:
“Legislators will correctly perceive that either
raising taxes or cutting expenditures will threaten
their re-election. To avoid this fate, they can opt for high rates of inflation,
which never
require a recorded vote and cannot be attributed to a specific action that any
elected official takes. In fact, John Maynard Keynes long ago
laid out a road map for political survival amid an economic disaster of just
this sort: “By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate,
secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens....
The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of
destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to
diagnose.”-- Greenback Effect By Warren E. Buffett
Well, Warren got that one right. Here is the hidden
jewel in this fluff piece. This is so blunt we wonder why the NYT allowed it to be published. It clearly
offers a license for legislators to print money and secretly accept inflation and
avoid voter abuse so as to keep their phony jobs.
The remedy:
“Our immediate problem is to get our country
back on its feet and flourishing —“whatever it takes” still makes sense. Once recovery is gained, however, Congress must end
the rise in the debt-to-G.D.P. ratio and keep our growth in obligations in line
with our growth in resources.”-- Greenback Effect By Warren E.
Buffett
Unchecked carbon emissions will
likely cause icebergs to melt. Unchecked greenback emissions will certainly
cause the purchasing power of currency to melt. The dollar’s destiny lies with
Congress.”-- Greenback
Effect By Warren E. Buffett
The ‘whatever it takes’ blather is
liberal code for more spending and phony stimuli.
This is
quite blunt and is truth-in-lending as far as I can determine when we look at
the economics and finance, but the salient message to the politicos here is two
fold:
[1] To
keep your phony jobs just print money and keep on spending and they will not be
able to pin hyperinflation directly on you and
[2] If
you want to put up the world’s biggest tax grab then feed inflation because
that will reduce liquidity to the price of water and only tangible assets will
have value.
[3] The
debt will drop like a dead butterfly when it is ameliorated by hyperinflation
and our grandkids will owe little or nothing if our currency collapses and the
debt with it.
Buffet
appears to offer this idea even though he hypocritically partakes of sweetheart
deals with banks. His comment above about savers buying AAA Treasury Bills and
such does not contain the information that they are going for auction currently
at zero percent interest or ‘zero coupon’ in the trade. Buffet does not scruple
to make 10% on his inside and sticky sweetheart deals and lecture the rest of
us on conservation and EcoNazism.
From my previous blog:
We should
live in a world where, like physics, some reasonable laws are known to govern
many of our interactions and economics is clearly one of them. The elementary
tenets of capitalism are well known since ancient times and the salient fact
that massive spending by governments lead to inflation is obvious.
Such warnings are common
such as outlined in the book Money
Mischief by Milton Friedman published some 20 years ago. But, there are
economic ‘experts’ and investment ‘oracles’ like Buffett who criticize much about our economy [mostly
for political reasons and Republicans in particular], yet seem to get
sweetheart deals with preferred stocks in companies like Goldman Sachs ,
Dow Chemical,
Rohm &
Haas and wallow unobserved in other deals that the public is not
privileged to participate in. Warren relishes
his perch on Olympus as the Sage of Omaha and boasted that his tax rate was
only 19% in federal taxes for 2006. While posing as an investment
guru he taught this. He and many other Democrats supported the
massive Obama spending follies that will surely sink our economy with silence
about the cliff we are approaching. His politics is more important than our
economy although he wants to make money from the current chaos. With insider help he will.
Conclusion:
This is
actually good news for the radicals. I suggested earlier in this week that with
some new 100% confiscatory inheritance taxes following the Communist Manifesto
word by word and setting up ‘managed’ healthcare [read euthanasia] that
truncates the care for the old white folk, then a goodly chunk of the 57
trillion dollars controlled by the oldies can be transferred directly to the
government in a decade or so.
At 5 trillion dollars a year this works out about right to pay off the current
deficit and spend wildly on social programs.
The butterflies, are singing about this. Time to rob the
bank. A sicklier plan exists only in the fevered minds of those in the
California Assembly in Sacramento. Buffet appears slick compared to
that mob.
rycK
Comments
to: ryckki@gmail.com
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