The Black Black Box Theory: Obama and Political Predictions and Outcomes Explained.

We all think we might be equipped with built-in prediction circuitry that might alert us with blinking lights or fog horns as to some predictable event that we are most in need of advance warning. The literature abounds with prediction theories that have various ratings according to their ability to forecast outcomes. Most of these are fluff and may be discarded. The simple-minded citizens frequently sense some correlation between a given public prediction by some person and a corresponding true event and they suddenly raise the predictor to ethereal heights as a prophet or sage.

Examples of this effect are Nostradamus, Jeane Dixon[1] and others. Dixon was credited by many for the prediction of the assassination of JFK in some article in a Parade Magazine piece of May 13, 1956. There is a mass social mental disorder known as the "Jeane Dixon effect", where an accidental correlation of an event with a single prediction out of a wild assortment of crude guesses brings fame and respect.[2] Most of her predictions were simply trash. However, she sold millions of her books despite many false predictions. The public needs to have such mental crutches to guide them in their follies it seems. The proof that she was effective rests in the magnitude of her book sales. We could use a black box that would supply us with the truth if political inputs were transformed by the box and the facts revealed and that is the subject of this essay.

Black box theory is snarled by the contemporary misappropriation of its original scientific and engineering utility by political scientists, writers, idiots and others. As a Senior Research Scientist at a major chemical company for many years[3], I had been trained in this theory in the School of Engineering at UCLA in a course known as linear circuit analysis. Here, an actual locked black box would be presented to students for experimentation in the laboratory that contained certain passive electrical components such as capacitors, resistors and coils and test equipment was available to energize the input terminals of the box and measure the outputs. By a judicious variation of electrical input signals, the different outputs could be analyzed and the contents of the box correctly elucidated using the laws of physics. The student then submitted a diagram of the circuitry to the professor and received his grade based on how close he came to describing the actual contents. This was possible because the electric components must follow strict laws of physics. Politics knows no such bounds, but the quest for such a predictive system is politically expedient. This path leads to folly but what is politics after the essence is stripped off? Maybe we can find something.

The word black used in the common description of a black box bears no racial message although many in the menial mentality crowd might insert some dark racial threat into the description of such a passive thing. We must remain sensitive when handling this word as the use of the term ‘black holes’ was recently shown to be a racist comment.  In the usage in this essay, the first word ‘black’ does relate directly to black politics and specifically to the Obama black political movement in US politics. Hence, we envision a black black box with a specific meaning.

Racism:

One cannot interject skin color into any conversation in America any more without giving the race baiters and professional racists an opening for scoring points against their enemies. The disease of racism is politically convoluted and is now described as an act of cryptomisoxeny [4] whereby a self-declared non racist might employ overt racism in prose, form, speeches or by inuendo and thus ‘identify’ and expose a supposed racist whose comments or methods cannot be disgintuished from those of the accuser. The New York Times—aka the Walter Duranty Papers[5] is famous for perfecting this process as professionally-trained, dedicated racists squat upon their lofty thrones at the Old Gray Lady and work the levers of the tacky tactics of racism to attack and expose ‘racists’ in their editorials. The Times extends this logic to assert that anybody who disagrees with their editorials and analysis on race matters are actually racists. Merely disagreeing with the Times on any political matter is tantamount to an admission of racism, ignorance, bias, cannibalism, or at least some limited form of degeneracy.

This sounds silly and hypocritical, but this is very good far-left politics, the only practical function of that newspaper. For example, it was possible for Senator Obama to describe his grandmother as a typical white woman[6] and mention her fears about blacks and yet this apparent overt racial labeling is celebrated as ‘transcending’ race by cryptomisoxenist hacks like Chris Matthews, who feels thrilling sensations surging up his legs on hearing that.[7] [Many of us do not fully understand what that means. It sounds like the Jerry Penacoli story about a declawed gerbil and where it wound up. [8]] Obama can make remarks about a typical white woman and tease Matthew’s primitive [or sexual] sensations, but a reciprocal comment about a ‘typical black woman’  by any white would bring howls of protests from Chris and utter condemnation for the speaker of those words as a confirmed racist.  Nevertheless, it is interesting to ask if the existence of a black black box can be deduced from political information and history that would allow facile predictions of the intentions and/or outcomes of the programs and policies of the Obama Administration. We must simply ignore the intrinsic racism of the press and look at the inputs from Obama himself and challenge the box with unfiltered input information. We would then inspect the outputs from transformed comments by Obama and make some determinations.

If this were possible then the first step would be to take items from his speeches and compare the contents of the speech with a ‘box’ outcome and see if they correlate.  It is too early for final outcomes. We need an interim analysis. If so, then, perhaps one part of the box might be elucidated. The caveat here is that we need several inputs chosen from numerous perches that may be presented to the ‘box’ and these must have a high correlation with the outputs. We can choose the word tax as a first test input and see what comes out of the box.

The Tax Essay:

Obama statements about taxes in a debate with Hillary:[9]” I not only have pledged not to raise their taxes, I've been the first candidate in this race to specifically say I would cut their taxes. [Emphasis is mine in all quotes.]

President-elect Obama famously claims, “I’ll give a tax break to 95% of workers and their families.” [10] 

Writing in The Wall Street Journal on Nov. 3, Obama said, “If you work, pay taxes, and make less than $200,000, you’ll get a tax cut.”[11]

This essay goes on and on while the actuaries and accountants show that people making about $80,000 will certainly experience an income tax increase. 95% of the workers yield for us the implausible number of about 125,000 people who would get a tax cut not counting illegal aliens and criminals who ‘work.’ The box seemingly produces nonsense transformations for the word tax.

Joe Biden has clarified this for us:

“"Read my lips," Biden  said, using Bush's famous phrase while referring to a Barack Obama administration. "Nobody, nobody making less than $250,000 is going to see a penny of their taxes go up."[12]—Biden[13] in an incoherent rant at some county fairgrounds near the campus of Ohio University in Athens on Oct 15, 2008.

This is difficult to believe.

Comments  from the WSJ:

“An Obama Administration couldn't possibly pay for a tax cut for 95% of Americans by raising taxes on a mere 5%. Those 5% don't make enough money, or at least they won't after they find ways to shelter more of their income when their tax rates rise.”[14]

One can juggle various tax categories around and find ways to ‘show’ that people who “… make less than $200,000, ..will… get a tax cut.”

It turns out that these tax statements are true only if extracted from the total tax picture and set aside in some narrow political context and that the proffered new Obama spending programs, totaling more than 1 trillion dollars, cannot be funded without massive tax hikes.

The Finding:

The contents of the black black box that we can identify contain this:  something inside the box mandates that the taxes will generally increase althoughsome taxes will be lowered in specific cases. This double speak is typical in politics. That is what the box does. It is a disinformation generator with no specific racial overtones.

Obama favors huge energy taxes[15], an undisputed fact, and a tax that does not appear in the political discussions. If new energy taxes are passed along to consumers by corporations then the customers will pay the higher price. That is an indirect tax. In theory, corporations pay no taxes at all because all taxes are included in the costs of production hence they are included in the price paid by the end user. The notion that the ‘poor’ will not have to pay for the higher intrinsic taxes embedded in commodities like tooth paste and sodas is ludicrous. But, such nostrums are the very essence of political persuasion. The crevasse that separates the leftists from the capitalists forces the advocates of the have-nots to be devious and dishonest. They cannot tell the truth about taxes. They have few options other than begging or threats. The black black box must generate outputs in concert with this disinformation mandate and it does exactly that.

Now, if the box had sent out signals that blacks would be given special tax breaks solely because of their skin color [reparations] with no such identifiable such inputs then the box would have a definite black racial component. The tax polities to date from Obama are color blind at this juncture. This box contains no such circuitry as yet.

The Internal Construction of the Black Black Box.

Obama is a standard and unremarkable leftist who favors, simply, the far leftist notion that government should control of most of our wealth. This is Marxism or socialism or whatever you might want to call it, but here it is. The ‘black’ part of the black black box, if anything, is that blacks are promised something they cannot get for themselves: a piece of the American Dream.

Nowhere in the world do we see cases where affluent blacks have created good or effective governments.  Their governments are typically Marxist dictatorships with tribal hatred and murder as their first priorities. They have suffered for decades around this planet by having been confined to localized degenerated societies and forced into political pogroms such as we can observe in any large city in California or anywhere in Africa.[16] Signal cities like Chicago, Oakland, Philly and Baltimore, inter alia, have extensive neighborhoods that were inadvertently prepared for ‘the poor’ by liberals, who forced complete dependency upon their victims by the government. These social containment facilities functioned to simply secure their eternal votes at taxpayer expense.  We are persuaded that the left employed ‘good intentions’ in the initiation, implementation and oversight of  such programs, but that largely political essay fails as we see disappointment everywhere and  this observation also seems to reflect the dismal historical status of African citizens on their own continent for several thousand years. The leftist attempts to isolate their subjects from the rest of society in inner city ghettos reek of tribalism in the old African sense.

Welfare effects:

Welfare has destroyed any hope that blacks with near average IQs in their cognitive category ever had of getting into the middle classes by their individual merits.  The average black is burdened by mandatory role playing and worse. Only the brightest of blacks can make it out of the ghetto and escape the clutches of the leftist social engineers who have ruined the black culture.  Those who escape and become successful seldom return.  Any black wh0 is successful and cannot soar to the podium where he or she may glubber and praise affirmative action [Clarence Thomas, Condoleezza Rice, Thomas Sowell, etc.] are considered ‘inauthentic’ and simple traitors.

Cognitive factors:

The cognitive skill[17] levels for average blacks that are necessary to compete with middle class whites are sadly deficient [IQ=85 or below] and well below the median for average whites [IQ =100]. This affects competition for jobs as intelligent employees make more money. The academic dropout rates in cities for blacks are typically than 50% or even higher in many cases.[18] High school dropouts get and maintain fewer jobs and the ones they can get offer low pay.

Crime:

A survey of the crime statistics city-by-city[19] clearly shows that those inner neighborhoods with high black populations have the highest crime rates in the US. Blacks are in prison in highly disproportionate rates.[20]

Mystical Black Cultures:

The assumption that Africa fell from the dizzying heights of economic, intellectual and social dominance in the last 7000 years cannot be attributed to their producing too many teachers, engineers and scientists. The notion that blacks were pharos in Egypt is based solely upon the facial features of a few statues.[21] Afrocentrism is a political construct.[22]  Apparently, the tragedy of slavery from some 15 decades ago has some remarkable lasting negative effect on the academic outcomes and business success rates for blacks. Only a single piece of ‘evidence’ is necessary to reconstruct the minute details and detailed history of an entire primitive society and synthesize a mystical black culture.

Competition:

Now, we can all argue about the reasons why blacks cannot compete in our society without quotas or affirmative action programs [the answer is always racism] and why they cannot get good scores on IQ tests [the answer is always racism] or why then cannot routinely pass standardized municipal employee tests [the answer is always racism], but the fact remains that the educational ‘gap’[23]  persists despite decades of attempts to correct this and academic success rates for blacks are still very poor.  The average black cannot compete on level terms with the average white or Asian in the open job market place [the answer is always racism]. After 50 years of civil rights, busing and social programs there is no reason to believe that this observation will change in the future. The situation appears to be hopeless [but this explanation must be racist]. Who can we blame for the failures of busing, affirmative action and other social programs not equalizing blacks with whites? The answer is always racism.

Hopelessness:

But, hopelessness is a bright political opportunity and the grand chance to fix such ‘hopeless cases’ that need financial rescue [with tax money of course] and is thus a major political objective and asset. This makes perfect political sense. Here, the concept of the exploitation of the masses is the best way to exploit their political support as the leftists can force the opposition [capitalists] to pay for their own counterproductive programs with business taxes. This is a win-win situation for the political left. Their social programs do not work, they get somebody else to pay for them and the situation grows worse with time and then they insist on more tax money to fund more programs. This is excellence in politics. This is a vote-generating spiral.

The internals of the black box:

There is no strictly ‘black’ racial component in the Obama black box. It is an ordinary black box that generates the usual political disinformation and fluff.  There is only the old musty socialist box of the customary sort that the Fabians and Bolsheviki noisily opened and closed for decades in their attempts to impose Marxism or socialism upon capitalists.  Barack Obama is a pedestrian-level leftist, quite ordinary and uncontroversial in leftist circles, and blacks are merely a sidelight in his promotion of the leftist agenda. They are expendable--that is why he transcends race. They adore him for his skin color, but he cares not about them or their race. He doesn’t have to support them now especially now after they voted for him assuming they would get something special for their votes. They won’t. He supported his obviously racist pastor Jeremiah Wright until he became a political liability and then he did ‘disown’ him and left his church.

There are no special tax breaks or tax credits targeted directly and exclusively to blacks. Obama will tax the general economy into a near depression if he can by mindlessly following the usual far leftist notions of government and there is nothing except rational government or a revolt that will prevent that.  He cannot finance his new social programs with out the wealth of the middle and upper-middle classes. Blacks in those income strata will be taxed equally and punished along with whites and Asians.

The capitalists can easily defend their interests against high taxes and oppressive government and survive or even prosper by shutting down selected businesses along with the timely discharge of employees. Unemployment will soar and the blacks will suffer the most. Large amounts of un-taxable reserve money and time are on the capitalist side.  They can wait out a long recession or depression when the common citizens become outraged and will vote out the leftists. Then, business will return from exile and create jobs. This is a global economy and capital and talent will flee this country if threatened. Blacks will endure the worst possible ending from these actions because of their meager educational levels, defeatist attitudes and non competitive cognitive skills and that is just another positive advance in the leftist cause.  They are anchored in place and have few good options. They are merely rubber voting stamps for the far left.

Conclusion:

This is all typical leftist politics and we see nothing exceptional in the Obama election. There is no bias in the box noted here.  He is the average leftist with the usual socialist leanings. He is nothing special. Let him defeat himself by advocating ineffective social programs. He will fail , but give him  his chance as he earned it.

rycK

Comments: ryckki@gmail.com